长三角空气质量区域预报准确性评估方法研究

根据长三角空气质量区域预报工作的实际需要,对分区文字预报和落区图预报两种方式分别制定了不同的空气质量指数级别预报准确性评估方法。分区文字预报根据设定的预报准确性判定方法计算预报评分,落区图预报按区域内预报准确城市占比进行准确率统计。分区文字预报结果显示,2017年长三角区域的预报准确天数占比为62.2%,预报评分为70.2,区域预报评估效果良好。落区图预报评估结果显示,预报级别偏差具有地域性差异,安徽北部、江苏北部和江西中北部预报等级偏高,长三角中南部沿海城市预报等级偏低。该套评估方法可为区域空气质量预报偏差成因分析提供依据,为区域预报工作的改进提供定量参考。     

西南山地区域森林火险综合预报模型研究——以重庆市为例

森林火灾严重破坏森林生态系统的结构和功能,针对其风险预报开展研究具有重要的理论意义和应用价值。通过融合气象、地表覆盖和人类活动等要素的方式构建森林火险综合预报模型,是西南山地区域森林火险综合预报业务化应用的重要发展方向。基于《森林火险气象等级》国家标准(GB/T 36743-2018),本文研究首先构建了重庆市森林火险气象风险预报模型。然后通过融合可燃物因素和人为因素的方式,进一步构建重庆市森林火险综合预报模型。最后利用历史火点数据针对上述两类模型的精度进行对比和分析。研究结果表明:重庆市森林火灾发生次数较多,且呈现出季节性规律;重庆市森林火灾的发生不仅受到气象条件的影响,而且受到地表覆盖和人类活动等多种要素条件的共同影响;与森林火险气象风险预报结果相比,森林火险综合预报结果在空间分布上具有更高的精细程度;森林火险综合预报模型能有效提高森林火险等级预报精度。     

可拓优度评价法在城市区域消防安全评价中的应用

为了解决城市区域消防安全评价的复杂性和不确定性,本文运用可拓优度评价法,根据相关文件并结合城市区域消防的实际情况,从火灾危险程度、城市区域特征、消防实力水平和社会管理状态4个方面选取17个指标,建立了城市区域消防安全评价指标体系并划分了消防安全等级,以洛阳市西工区为例对城市区域消防安全评价的可拓优度方法进行了验证。结果表明,可拓优度方法可以准确反映出该区域消防安全水平。     

南黄海2007—2017年浮游植物群落结构及多样性变化

在2007-2017年秋季，利用专业海洋调查船对整个南黄海海域开展了5个航次的浮游植物调查。结果发现：调查海域共有浮游植物371种，隶属4门108属。其中硅藻门有56属237种，甲藻门有24属98种，硅藻和甲藻是组成南黄海海域浮游植物最主要的两大类群。主要优势种有裸甲藻（Gymnodinium sp.）、柔弱拟菱形藻（Nitz.delicatissima）、蓝隐藻（Chroomonas sp.）、菱形海线藻（Thalassionema nitzschioides）、锥状施克里普藻（Scrippsiella trochoidea）和环沟藻（Gyrodinium spp.）等。2007年以来，南黄海浮游植物种类数呈明显上升趋势。浮游植物细胞密度平均为1.96×10⁴个/L，年际变化较大。将调查结果与众多文献比对，共发现9种藻类为中国新记录藻种，其中有4种硅藻和5种甲藻。     

ASE-气相色谱法测定油田区土壤中多种石油烃

采用气相色谱法测定油田区土壤中C_(10)～C_(40)的石油烃,通过优化加速溶剂萃取的条件,使方法在62 mg/L～3 100 mg/L范围内线性良好,方法检出限为4.8 mg/kg。用该方法测定石油区短期、中期、长期油井污染土壤样品,5次测定结果的RSD为1.3%～5.2%,加标回收率为84.8%～98.5%,有证标准样品测定结果在可信区间内。     

CO2浓度升高对半干旱区春小麦光合作用及水分生理生态特性的影响

大气CO₂浓度升高已成为世界范围内重要环境问题。为了解大气CO₂浓度升高对春小麦光合作用及水分生理生态特性的影响,在典型半干旱区定西利用开顶式气室(OTC)试验平台,以春小麦“定西24号”为供试品种,开展了CO₂浓度增加模拟试验。试验设对照(390μmol·mol^?1)、480μmol·mol^?1和570μmol·mol^?1等3个CO₂浓度(摩尔分数)梯度。结果表明:在对照和增加CO₂浓度条件下,春小麦叶片净光合速率和蒸腾速率日变化均呈“双峰型”分布,出现明显的“午休”现象;胞间CO₂浓度的日变化表现为斜“V”字型曲线;叶水势日变化呈现反抛物线曲线走向,在中午后出现水势曲线拐点。在不同生育时期内,净光合速率、气孔导度和胞间CO₂浓度均表现为开花期最大,乳熟期最小。而蒸腾速率表现为开花期最大,拔节期最小,叶片水平水分利用效率表现为孕穗期最大,乳熟期最小。随着CO₂浓度升高,春小麦叶片净光合速率、胞间CO₂浓度、水分利用效率和水势提高,气孔导度和蒸腾速率降低。与对照大气CO₂浓度相比,在480μmol·mol^?1浓度和570μmol·mol^?1浓度下,整个生育期净光合速率平均分别提高了14.68%和28.20%,气孔导度平均降低了15.29%和24.83%,胞间CO₂浓度平均提高了10.38%和26.15%,蒸腾速率平均减小了6.63%和12.41%,WUE平均增加了22.9%和46.9%。随着CO₂浓度升高,蒸腾失水减少,叶片水势不断增加,从而增强了春小麦对干旱胁迫的抵御能力。研究结果为我国半干旱区春小麦对全球气候变化下的敏感性及适应性提供理论参考。     

Effects of law enforcement and community outreach on mammal diversity in a biodiversity hotspot

Management activities such as law enforcement and community outreach are thought to affect conservation outcomes in protected areas, but their importance relative to intrinsic environmental characteristics of the parks and extrinsic human pressures surrounding the parks have not been explored. Furthermore, it is not clear which is more related to conservation outcomes—the management itself or local people's perceptions of the management. We measured objective (reports by park staff) and subjective (reports by local people) levels of community outreach and law enforcement based on responses to 374 questionnaires. We estimated mammal abundance and diversity of 6 protected areas based on data from 115 camera traps in Xishuangbanna, southwest China, a biodiversity hotspot with high hunting and land-conversion pressures. We then examined correlations among them and found that local people's perception of law enforcement was positively related to the local abundance of 2 large, hunted species, wild boar (Sus scrofa) (β = 15.22) and muntjac (Muntiacus vaginalis) (β = 14.82), but not related to the abundance of smaller mammals or to objective levels of enforcement. The subjective frequency of outreach by park staff to local communities (β = 3.42) and park size (β = 3.28) were significantly and positively related to mammal species richness, whereas elevation, human population density, and subjective frequency of law enforcement were not. We could not conclude that community outreach and law enforcement were directly causing increased mammal abundance and diversity. Nevertheless, the patterns we detected are some of the first empirical evidence consistent with the idea that biodiversity in protected areas may be more positively and strongly related to local perceptions of the intensity of park management than to either intrinsic (e.g., elevation, park size) or extrinsic (e.g., human population density) environmental factors.     

Exposure assessment of operators to pesticides in Kongou,a sub-watershed of Niger River valley

The use of pesticides in horticultural sector in Niger has become an integral part of modern agriculture. Nevertheless, their inappropriate use can generate negative health effects to operators. A study was carried out among Kongou farmers in order to assess their potential dermal exposure (PDE). The UK-POEM model was used to quantify the PDE during mixing/loading and application according to the local practices. In order to determine which parts of the operator body are subject to most contamination during spraying and to validate the theoretical model used, a patch method was used with a tartrazine dye. The deposits of the tartrazine on patches were measured by colorimetry thanks to the absorbance value determined after their extraction in water and a calibration curve. A total of ten spraying trials (five trials with the hand-held sprayer and five others with the backpack sprayer) were performed by different producers at 0.5 and 1 m height for each trial. The survey shows that 92% of the farmers are illiterate and the most common active substances identified are organophosphate or pyrethroids insecticides. Seventy percent of operators do not use any personal protective equipment (PPE) during mixing/loading or spraying. The predictive systemic exposure levels vary from 0.0027?mg kg^?1 bw per day to 0.7692?mg kg^?1 bw per day for backpack sprayer and from 0.0261?mg kg^?1 bw per day to 0.9788?mg kg^?1 bw per day for hand-held sprayer, several times higher the Acceptable Operator Exposure Level (AOEL) for some actives substances. Theoretical modeling indicates more exposure of operator by a hand-held sprayer than a backpack sprayer. The patch method results show that the deposits of dye increase when the position of sprayer nozzle increases from 0.5 to 1 m for the two sprayers. All parts of the operator body are contaminated but lower body parts and chest are the most exposed. The patch method results also show that hand spraying contaminates operator more than backpack spraying, confirming the results of the theoretical model.     

嘉善前体物与气象因子对臭氧生成的影响及臭氧潜在源区分析

利用2017年嘉善善西超级站臭氧（O₃）及其前体物（NO_x和VOCs）以及气象因子（温度、湿度、风速）逐小时数据，分析了2017年全年NO_x和O₃的变化特征以及春季（4—5月）、夏季（7—8月）NO_x和气象因子对O₃生成的影响，利用O₃生成潜势（OFP）评估了VOCs大气化学反应活性，并通过潜在源区贡献（PSCF）和浓度权重轨迹（CWT）方法分析了嘉善春、夏季O₃潜在源区贡献特征。研究发现：O₃日变化特征为单峰结构，NO_x为弱双峰结构。O₃浓度在3—9月较高，春、夏季O₃浓度峰值分别出现在15：00和14：00，春、夏季的NO_x、O₃日变化与2017年全年日变化趋势基本一致。NO_x对O₃存在滴定作用，且低湿高温有利于O₃浓度的升高。春、夏季O₃生成潜势贡献均表现为烯烃 > 芳香烃 > 烷烃，由于烯烃光化学活性较高，夏季烯烃浓度升高导致其贡献较春季增长约18.1个百分点，且夏季VOCs平均最大O₃增量反应活性高于春季。PSCF和CWT分析结果表明，嘉善春季的潜在源区主要为本地、西南方向和东南方向，夏季的潜在源区主要为本地、西北方向、西南方向以及东南方向。     

玛纳斯河流域荒漠草地沙化遥感监测研究

以1989—2016年玛纳斯河流域TM/OLI遥感影像为数据源,利用混合像元分解技术,计算玛纳斯河流域草地总覆盖度和裸沙面积。在此基础上通过监测年与基期年的比较,计算草地覆盖度相对基期年的减少率和裸沙面积相对基期年的增加率两个监测指标,依据《天然草地退化、沙化、盐渍化的分级指标》(GB 19377—2003),对计算出的两个指标分别进行沙化等级评定和赋值,将两种评定结果相综合来监测草地沙化。结果表明,玛纳斯河流域近30年来荒漠草地沙漠化总体呈现先增加后降低的趋势。分析表明,玛纳斯河流域草地沙化是人为和自然因素双重作用的结果。